It's only temporary
There are three things you can count on in life -- death, taxes, and overreactions to the PC market. Nearly every time an analyst or market research firm posts less than stellar shipment figures for the PC sector, sensationalist headlines follow. Gartner's report that worldwide PC shipments declined 9.5 percent in the second quarter of 2015 is no exception, though a closer examination reveals all is still fine.
You wouldn't know that by glancing at headlines pointing out that this is the worst decline in almost two years. While technically true, it paints a darker picture than the reality of the situation, which is that the drop in shipments is only temporary.
"Analysts emphasized that these inhibitors are temporary events, and they are not changing the PC market's structure. Therefore, while the PC industry is going through a decline, the market is expected to go back to slow and steady growth in 2016," Gartner says.
So why the drop? Gartner points to "many contributors," including the appreciation of the U.S. dollar in some regions, a greater than expected spike in desktop PC sales last year, and the impending Windows 10 launch later this month.
"The price hike of PCs became more apparent in some regions due to a sharp appreciation of the U.S. dollar against local currencies," Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. "The price hike could hinder PC demand in these regions. Secondly, the worldwide PC market experienced unusually positive desk-based growth last year due to the end of Windows XP support. After the XP impact was phased out, there have not been any major growth drivers to stimulate a PC refresh. Lastly, the Windows 10 launch scheduled for 3Q15 has created self-regulated inventory control. PC vendors and the channels tried clearing inventory as much as possible before the Windows 10 launch."
According to Gartner, PC makers shipped 68.4 million computers in the second quarter of 2015. Though that's a 9.5 percent decline compared to the same quarter a year ago, shipments for the full year are projected to drop just 4.4 percent before returning to growth again next year.
Interestingly, Lenovo held onto the top spot among OEMs even though it suffered a year-on-year decline in shipments and created some negative PR from the SuperFish fiasco. Not only that, but it increased its standing, going from a 19.1 percent share of the PC market to 19.7 percent, while HP held steady in second place with a 17.4 percent share.
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