The good, the bad, and the wrong predictions
Way back in 2011, the old staff at Maximum PC predicted what Dream Machine 2015 would look like. Well, now that Dream Machine 2015 is officially here, we thought we would look back at our predictions to see how we did.
Dream Machine 2015 teaser video
You’ll see a lot of the old staff pick specific components for Dream Machine 2015 below, but equally interesting to read are their general predictions of the tech industry as a whole. Remember that back in 2011, tablets had just splashed on to the scene and were the new hotness. Now, tablet sales have crashed.
With that said, let’s take a stroll back through memory lane, shall we?
Nathan Edwards (former Senior Associate Editor):
“First, it’ll still be a desktop computer”
Nathan was right about that one.
“...but it’ll probably be smaller. As laptops and tablets gain prominence in the lives of average users, desktops will become more and more the domain of the power user, but that doesn’t mean they’ll stay as huge as they are. I predict the 2015 Dream Machine will have a micro-ATX or Mini-ITX motherboard”
Nope. Our Dream Machine uses a big full-tower chassis.
“[it will use] a 24-core processor”
Not quite. Our 5960X only has eight actual cores, but it does have 16 threads.
“maybe 48GB of RAM”
We actually used 64GB of RAM!
“The GPUs it does have might not be PCIe at all—optical Light Peak could have superseded it by then.”
Nope. We’re still using PCIe.
This is how Dream Machine 2015 ended up looking.
“The DM will also have at least 1TB of solid-state storage, though I’m sure it’ll still have mechanical drives for mass storage.”
Right you are, Nathan. This year’s Dream Machine actually has four one-terabyte SSDs and four six-terabyte HDDs.
“Most computers of 2015 will be glorified docks for smartphones and tablets.”
Not exactly. Traditional tablets are a fading market. There has been some traction with two-in-ones, however.
“Dream Machine, though it’ll surely have a phone dock”
Nope.
“30-inch panel”
We ended up going with a 27-inch (but it’s a beautiful 5K one).
“Mechanical keyboard”
Yep.
“laser mouse”
Yep.
“a really great headset”
Yep.
Alex Castle (former Online Managing Editor):
“It’ll still feature an x86 processor, but with 12 or more physical cores running at more than 5 GHz.”
Right about the x86 processor, wrong about the 12 physical cores, as our CPU only has 8 physical cores. And we couldn’t reach 5GHz unfortunately, but 4.5GHz isn’t terribly far off.
“You’ll find at least 64GB of RAM (probably more) in the system, and one or more terabyte-class SSDs.”
Whoa. We used 64GB of RAM on the dot and have four terabyte-class SSDs!
“If we’re even still bothering with HDDs and that point, we’ll only need one for massive capacity storage."
Nope. We’ve got four massive 6TB HDDs.
“I don’t think Dream Machine 2015 will feature any optical drives. “
Good riddance, we say!
The actual innards of Dream Machine 2015
Gordon Ung (former Senior Editor):
“I’m going to say that the rig will run one single x86 processor sporting 12 cores.”
We’re using a single x86 processor, but it only has eight physical cores.
“It will be built on a 15nm process”
The 5960X uses a 22nm process, we’re afraid.
“[It will] clock in at the 4.5GHz range (overclocked)”
Did you summon a soothsayer here? That’s right on the money!
“The CPU or APU or BPU by then will have eaten even more graphics capability but discrete graphics will continue to be king.”
Right you are.
“Switchable graphics, however, will finally work so the 90 percent of the time your PC isn’t pushing heavy duty 3D needs, it’ll be running on the on-board chip’s graphics."
Switchable graphics is par the course for gaming notebooks, but not so true for desktops.
“The box will likely sport 64GB of DDR4/3333”
Very close. 64GB of DDR4 clocked at 2,800MHz.
“As I said, discrete graphics will still be king for anyone who actually cares about gaming and DM2015 will sport no fewer than two GPUs in the PCIe 4.0 slots. “
Right about having at least two GPUs, but we’re still on PCIe gen 3.
“I’d guess it’ll have two 2TB SSDs in RAID 0”
We’ve got four one-terabyte SSDs in RAID 0, so that’s close.
“Hard drives will continue to handle bulk store with say, a total of three 9TB drives for 27TB of storage.”
Again. Very close. We’ve got four 6TB HDDs for a total of 24TB of hard drive space.
“USB 4.0 running Thunderbolt will be integrated into the chipset as well."
Nope. No Thunderbolt and we’re running a bunch of USB 3.0.
“The PSU, interestingly, will continue to be topped out at 1,500 watts as there’s simply no where to go from there.”
Close, but 1,600 watts is actually what it generally tops off at in the United States, and that’s what we ended up using.
“The panel will support native 4K or 4096x2160 pixels and 120Hz capability for 3D and touch capability.”
While they do make 4K panels that run at 120Hz, our panel runs at 5K with an insane resolution of 5120x2880. It’s also a 60Hz panel with no touch capability.
Markkus Rovito (former Online Editor of Maximum Tech):
“We'll begin with a motherboard accommodating 96GB of RAM”
We ended up going with 64GBs.
“The board includes four Thunderbolt slots, as well as plenty of USB 4.1 and SATA7 ports, as well.”
Nope. Sorry.
“For storage, we've finally gone all solid-state. Three 3TB SSDs make a respectable 9TB data dump.”
Unfortunately, this year’s DM “only” had 4TBs of SSDs….
“Dual octa-core processors clocked at 5.5GHz”
Nope. One octa-core processor clocked at 4.5GHz.
“Four graphics cards clocked at 2GHz each “
We did end up using four graphics cards, but our GPUs carried base core clocks of 1,207MHz, not 2GHz.
Katherine Stevenson:
“In 2015 there may very well be large numbers of people who don’t own a desktop PC, or even a notebook, as smartphones are showing all signs of evolving into pocket-size powerhouses capable of meeting many computing needs on their own.”
It’s true that smartphones have become ultra popular around the world, but most people still use either a desktop PC or notebook for their productivity needs.
“It’s quite likely, however, that the Dream Machine of 2015 will be smaller than DMs past, while packing way more power.”
Smaller? Not quite. With a chassis that measures 11.2x26x25.7 inches, this Dream Machine is plenty big. Way more power? You bet!
“Discrete graphics cards will probably be obsolete”
It’s true that Intel and AMD have been gaining traction with integrated graphics, but they still have a lot of ground to cover, especially as it pertains to Dream Machine.
“This mighty mite will be paired with a large, high-res display, possibly curved, that’s capable of displaying 3D content sans glasses and 4K video in all its glory.”
High-res display: yes. Curved, 3D, and 4K: no. The latter of which is incorrect because we’ve gone with a 5K monitor!
Amber Bouman (former Online Features Editor):
“Dream Machine 2015 will almost certainly feature a glasses-free 3D display of some sort, and with the average display size creeping ever larger, the display in question will likely be 30+ inches.”
Nope, and 3D monitors never picked up much steam.
“Maybe 35 or 37 inches, and there will be at least two monitors.”
We went with a single, but beautiful monitor, and they still don’t really make monitors that big.
“I also think that there will be some type of mobile aspect to it—an associated tablet that docks to the PC, or a smartphone dock... perhaps some sort of flexible tablet? Perhaps a projected hologram or 3D image? Either way, the mobile aspect will be impossible to ignore or exclude.”
Nope. Sorry.
“I'm also thinking—and this is pure speculation—improved/increased voice controls, better/more cloud adaptation freeing up memory and hard drive space, and heavy home integrations, i.e., controlling your front door, home theatre, or alarm system with your PC.”
Windows 10 does support Cortana and you can get more cloud storage to free up hard drive space, but it probably isn’t that sophisticated. The whole upcoming “Internet of Things” thing seems to be touching upon your later prediction, though.
Jon Phillips
“I wouldn't hazard to posit anything about the specific components we might find in Dream Machine 2015. But I do think that on the CPU side of things, the so-called "power wall" will continue to force Intel and AMD to mitigate clock speed limitations with multi-core designs. How many cores exactly? I'll reserve speculation!”
A fair, but safe assumption.
“Sure, new process technologies will eventually emerge that allow us to handle thermals and power issues at very fast frequencies, but don't expect any mass-market breakthroughs within the next four years.”
This is largely true.
“All that said, I'm willing to state with utmost certainty that the CPU in DM2015 will be running an X86 architecture. It won't be ARM so that we can all play the desktop version of Angry Birds 4.”
That’s correct.
“And we'll probably see some type of iteration of Thunderbolt.”
Not on this Dream Machine, unfortunately.
“And while notebook, tablets, and even smartphones will continue to chip away at desktop sales, we'll still see a thriving PC hardware enthusiast community in 2015, and we'll continue to be using desktops for games, video editing, and mundane office crap. “
Right you are.
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